Failing to meet UNAIDS’s “95-95-95” HIV targets would entail tremendous human and economic consequences, according to an analysis presented at AIDS 2024 (poster 11028).

The study, presented by Erik Lamontagne, PhD, a senior economist at UNAIDS, estimated the cost of failing to meet the “95-95-95” targets in 114 countries. These targets would be achieved when 95% of people who are living with HIV know their HIV status, 95% of people who know they are living with HIV are on antiretroviral therapy (ART) and 95% of people who are on ART are virally suppressed.

The researchers compared the incremental costs, benefits and economic returns of fulfilling the targets with a scenario that maintains HIV-related services at 2020 levels every year until 2050.

The human cost would include an estimated 34.9 million new HIV acquisitions and 17.7 AIDS-related deaths between 2021 and 2050. The economic cost would be an estimated $8,291 per person among all low- and middle-income countries by 2050.

Scaling up ART could reduce HIV-related death and annual infections, Dr. Lamontagne said during a media briefing. Investing in the 95-95-95 goal could “generate a net return on investment of $14.80 per capita for each dollar invested between now and 2050. So, investing in people-centered prevention, universal access to treatment and ensuring equal rights for all are within our reach,” Dr. Lamontagne said.

“The world is at a critical juncture in the response to HIV,” said Sharon Lewin, MD, PhD, the president of the International AIDS Society, AIDS 2024 International co-chair, and director of the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity at the University of Melbourne, in Australia. “This study reminds us just how much is at stake if we fail to act, and what can be achieved if we act now.”